This much is fact: The Hunger Games will open bigger than any movie so far this year. The question is, will it set a record? Some box-office watchers say it’s the $125 million question. John Fithian, president of The National Association of Theater Owners, said Thursday that he expects the picture to open to between $115 million and $120 million.
That would make it the biggest March opening ever, surpassing “Alice in Wonderland,” which opened to more than $116 million in 2010.
It would also put it in the company of just 19 movies that have opened to more than $100 million.
“Alice” is the 10th-biggest opening ever, and “Shrek the Third,” which opened to $121.6 million in 2007, is No. 9 – a distinction both pictures could well lose this weekend.
The industry water-cooler game of “how huge” being played this week is a stark contrast to the one played two weeks ago, when Hollywood was placing bets on how badly “John Carter” would flop.
Lionsgate, which is releasing the PG-13 movie, is trying to manage expectations. An individual close to the studio told TheWrap that the studio is a little trapped: If the studio predicts $115 million and it “only” takes $110 million, it’s a disappointment.
The studio spent about $100 million to make the movie, which became $80 million after tax incentives. This much is clear: Opening weekend is going to be huge.
The audience survey firm NRG shows that overall awareness of the movie is an astonishing 92 percent. Among females younger than 25, overall awareness is an almost-impossible 96 percent.
Equally impressive: 66 percent of those surveyed report “definite” interest in seeing the movie and 43 percent say it’s their “first choice.” Among the target audience of females younger than 25, 76 percent say they have “definite” interest and 59 percent call it their “first choice” for the weekend.
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